Euroleague Now Included in the Box Score Prediction System

Recently I explored the correlation between Euroleague and NBA stats (article here: http://basketball-statistics.com/howdoeuroleaguestatisticstranslatetothenba.html). My next step has been to incorporate Euroleague stats into my Box Score Prediction System (explanation here: http://basketball-statistics.com/explanationoftheboxscorepredictionsystem.html).

I used the same process with Euroleague as I did with the NCAA. I developed a formula that projects each NBA stat using Euroleague data and other variables such as height, weight, and experience. These formulas were developed using multiple linear regressions. The adjusted R^2 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coefficient_of_determination) values for the different NBA stats are as follows:

FGA: 0.2971
FG%: 0.3004
3PA: 0.6834
3P%: 0.7729
FTA: 0.4111
FT%: 0.6887
REB: 0.8609
AST: 0.7202
STL: 0.5606
BLK: 0.7964
TO: 0.4538
PF: 0.5432

In the next few weeks, I will include projections of European prospects to go along with my projections of college players. I have slightly less confidence about the Euro projections because the data is more unreliable, but the projections will still be useful.

If you have any suggestions, e-mail me at [email protected] All Euroleague stats were obtained from www.keyhoops.com. NBA stats were obtained from www.basketball-reference.com.

Did you enjoy this post? Why not leave a comment below and continue the conversation, or subscribe to my feed and get articles like this delivered automatically to your feed reader.

Comments

do you know of stats reflecting the rate at which drafted european players “stick” in the league versus draft choices from US colleges/high schoolers. i.e. probability of each remaining on an active roster 2,3,5 years from draft?

It’s a bit old, but this may interest you:

http://basketball-statistics.com/analyzinginternationaldraftpicks.html

Leave a comment