Euroleague Now Included in the Box Score Prediction System
Recently I explored the correlation between Euroleague and NBA stats (article here: http://basketball-statistics.com/howdoeuroleaguestatisticstranslatetothenba.html). My next step has been to incorporate Euroleague stats into my Box Score Prediction System (explanation here: http://basketball-statistics.com/explanationoftheboxscorepredictionsystem.html).
I used the same process with Euroleague as I did with the NCAA. I developed a formula that projects each NBA stat using Euroleague data and other variables such as height, weight, and experience. These formulas were developed using multiple linear regressions. The adjusted R^2 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coefficient_of_determination) values for the different NBA stats are as follows:
FGA: 0.2971
FG%: 0.3004
3PA: 0.6834
3P%: 0.7729
FTA: 0.4111
FT%: 0.6887
REB: 0.8609
AST: 0.7202
STL: 0.5606
BLK: 0.7964
TO: 0.4538
PF: 0.5432
In the next few weeks, I will include projections of European prospects to go along with my projections of college players. I have slightly less confidence about the Euro projections because the data is more unreliable, but the projections will still be useful.
If you have any suggestions, e-mail me at [email protected]. All Euroleague stats were obtained from www.keyhoops.com. NBA stats were obtained from www.basketball-reference.com.
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Comments
It’s a bit old, but this may interest you:
http://basketball-statistics.com/analyzinginternationaldraftpicks.html
do you know of stats reflecting the rate at which drafted european players “stick” in the league versus draft choices from US colleges/high schoolers. i.e. probability of each remaining on an active roster 2,3,5 years from draft?