Developing a Measure for Evaluating Coaches, Part II: Exceeding Pythagorean Wins

Today I’m going to take a different approach to evaluating coaches. One suggested theory of evaluating head coaches is to look at how their teams outperform their expected (Pythagorean) wins. The thinking goes that great coaches consistently excel in late-game situations and often win more than random chance would allow. You could also make the argument that great coaches optimize the way in which they use their players, another reason they outperform their expected win totals.

What does the data say? I rounded up each team’s actual and expected wins over the last seven years and calculated the averages for each coach. You can find the data here:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=rI4SSKbrDqddJZcy0IBJ50w

As you can see, those theories may be wrong. The results appear to be random, at least when you factor in common beliefs about who’s a good coach and who’s not.

Stay tuned, as there is much more research on coaches to come.

Update to Effort Ratings

As you may recall, one of the weaknesses of my hustle ratings was the fact that rebounding numbers were skewed because tall teams will look like they hustle more than they do. With the help of Justin Kubatko, that problem has been fixed. Rebound rates are now adjusted for team height, which is essentially each team’s average height weighted by minutes played. To find the new numbers, go to:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=rTvGfXUp3rTDPsp20SQ3pig

Developing a Measure for Evaluating Coaches, Part I: Impact on Effort

Today I have released the first of a three-part series in which I will try to develop a measure for evaluating NBA head coaches. The first step is measuring their impact on their team’s effort. You can find the article here:

http://basketball-statistics.com/developingameasureforevaluatingcoachespart1.html

Top Draft Prospects for Each Team: Pacific Division

This is the sixth of a six-part series in which I will match up the best prospects for each team based on the team’s weaknesses and the players’ strengths. I use each team’s Four Factors (available here: http://www.knickerblogger.net/stats/2009/Magic.htm) and the top prospects’ Four Factors (available here: http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=rYWvxyu-k0VHkqpR1m7Oc4g). Some of the teams I will talk about don’t have high enough picks to select the best available players, but I’m going ahead with it anyways just in case they make draft day trades.

Los Angeles Lakers
1. Hasheem Thabeet
2. Blake Griffin
3. Leo Lyons
4. Tyler Hansbrough
5. Ricky Rubio

Phoenix Suns
1. DeJuan Blair
2. Tyler Hansbrough
3. Jeff Pendergraph
4. DeMarre Carroll
5. Marcus Thornton

Golden State Warriors
1. Jeff Pendergraph
2. Blake Griffin
3. Hasheem Thabeet
4. B.J. Mullens
5. Taj Gibson

Los Angeles Clippers
1. Jeff Pendergraph
2. Blake Griffin
3. Ty Lawson
4. Hasheem Thabeet
5. Taj Gibson

Sacramento Kings
1. DeJuan Blair
2. Jon Brockman
3. Jordan Hill
4. Tyler Hansbrough
5. Jeff Pendergraph

Thoughts on Tuesday’s Trades

With the draft almost here, things are really heating up in front offices. Tuesday was a particularly exciting day with two very notable trades going down. The first resulted in Richard Jefferson heading to San Antonio, expiring contracts and Amir Johnson headed to Milwaukee, and an expiring and partially guaranteed contract headed to Detroit. The big winners in this trade seem to be the San Antonio Spurs. While Jefferson’s contract is a bit hefty, the Spurs made the correct decision in trying to win now as the window of opportunity for Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili closes. As they learned last season, especially when Ginobili is hurt, they simply lacked a scoring threat beyond Duncan and Tony Parker. With Jefferson now on board, and Ginobili coming back healthy, they should have an abundance of offense to go along with their usual stellar defense. They are a defensive big man away from being a huge threat to the Lakers.

For Milwaukee, it was also a solid move but not a home run. They essentially gave away Richard Jefferson for the right to not pay anyone in the near future. Because of the move, they may have the cap flexibility now to re-sign Ramon Sessions and/or Charlie Villanueva. Clearly, they value that over the play of Jefferson. While it may be a correct assessment, don’t underestimate the skills of Jefferson and their need to replace them.

Finally, for Detroit, I just don’t get it. I understand this move saves them a couple million in an offseason where they are trying to stockpile as much cap room as possible, but they never gave Johnson the chance he probably deserved. In limited minutes he always ranked well in Composite Score. If given the opportunity in Milwaukee, he could become a very useful big man and a player the Pistons may one day regret giving away for a cheap buck (no pun intended). Let’s hope this move gives them the perfect amount of cap room to make all their offseason dreams come true.

The other notable trade was Minnesota trading Randy Foye and Mike Miller to the Wizards for the #5 pick and undesirable contracts. Let’s start with the bad. Even though many experts seem to be on board with this move for the Wiz and think they’ll be a contender in the East next year, to me it seems like a typical Washington short-sighted decision. Foye and Miller have talent, to be sure, but is this what Washington really needs right now? Their problem has always been defense and neither one of those players is going to turn things around in that department. In addition, with players like Gilbert Arenas, Nick Young, and DeShawn Stevenson already on the roster, how necessary is Randy Foye? On paper he sounds like a great partner in the backcourt for Arenas, but unfortunately that sounds like a pair that will get lit up defensively. Miller will provide some nice outside shooting. Is that worth the fifth pick in the draft?

I love the move from Minnesota’s perspective. Foye and Miller are useful but not championship-caliber players. Now that they own picks #5 and 6, the Wolves can select the remaining two of Stephen Curry/James Harden/Ricky Rubio/Tyreke Evans. My personal favorites are Curry and Evans, but any two of those along with Kevin Love and Al Jefferson form a nice core. All they need is a shot-blocking big man and they could be a playoff team immediately and a contender in the not-so-distant future.

Top Draft Prospects for Each Team: Northwest Division

This is the fifth of a six-part series in which I will match up the best prospects for each team based on the team’s weaknesses and the players’ strengths. I use each team’s Four Factors (available here: http://www.knickerblogger.net/stats/2009/Magic.htm) and the top prospects’ Four Factors (available here: http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=rYWvxyu-k0VHkqpR1m7Oc4g). Some of the teams I will talk about don’t have high enough picks to select the best available players, but I’m going ahead with it anyways just in case they make draft day trades.

Denver Nuggets
1. DeJuan Blair
2. DeMarre Carroll
3. Marcus Thornton
4. Tyler Hansbrough
5. Jeff Pendergraph

Portland Trail Blazers
1. Tyler Hansbrough
2. Ty Lawson
3. Jon Brockman
4. Jeff Pendergraph
5. Eric Maynor

Utah Jazz
1. Jeff Pendergraph
2. Ty Lawson
3. Lee Cummard
4. Wayne Ellington
5. Jodie Meeks

Minnesota Timberwolves
1. Jeff Pendergraph
2. Ty Lawson
3. Lee Cummard
4. Tyler Hansbrough
5. DeJuan Blair

Oklahoma City Thunder
1. Jeff Pendergraph
2. Ty Lawson
3. Jodie Meeks
4. Lee Cummard
5. Tyler Hansbrough

Top Draft Prospects for Each Team: Southwest Division

This is the fourth of a six-part series in which I will match up the best prospects for each team based on the team’s weaknesses and the players’ strengths. I use each team’s Four Factors (available here: http://www.knickerblogger.net/stats/2009/Magic.htm) and the top prospects’ Four Factors (available here: http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=rYWvxyu-k0VHkqpR1m7Oc4g). Some of the teams I will talk about don’t have high enough picks to select the best available players, but I’m going ahead with it anyways just in case they make draft day trades.

San Antonio Spurs
1. Jon Brockman
2. Blake Griffin
3. Taj Gibson
4. Hasheem Thabeet
5. Tyler Hansbrough

Houston Rockets
1. Jeff Pendergraph
2. Ty Lawson
3. DeJuan Blair
4. Jodie Meeks
5. Jon Brockman

Dallas Mavericks
1. Hasheem Thabeet
2. Blake Griffin
3. Leo Lyons
4. Tyler Hansbrough
5. Taj Gibson

New Orleans Hornets
1. Blake Griffin
2. Hasheem Thabeet
3. Taj Gibson
4. B.J. Mullens
5. Jeff Pendergraph

Memphis Grizzlies
1. DeJuan Blair
2. Tyler Hansbrough
3. Lee Cummard
4. Jeff Pendergraph
5. Wayne Ellington

Top Draft Prospects for Each Team: Central Division

This is the third of a six-part series in which I will match up the best prospects for each team based on the team’s weaknesses and the players’ strengths. I use each team’s Four Factors (available here: http://www.knickerblogger.net/stats/2009/Magic.htm) and the top prospects’ Four Factors (available here: http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=rYWvxyu-k0VHkqpR1m7Oc4g). Some of the teams I will talk about don’t have high enough picks to select the best available players, but I’m going ahead with it anyways just in case they make draft day trades.

Cleveland Cavaliers
1. Hasheem Thabeet
2. Blake Griffin
3. Leo Lyons
4. Tyler Hansbrough
5. Taj Gibson

Chicago Bulls
1. Jeff Pendergraph
2. Ty Lawson
3. Jodie Meeks
4. Lee Cummard
5. Tyler Hansbrough

Detroit Pistons
1. Ty Lawson
2. Blake Griffin
3. Hasheem Thabeet
4. Jeff Pendergraph
5. B.J. Mullens

Indiana Pacers
1. Jeff Pendergraph
2. Tyler Hansbrough
3. Blake Griffin
4. Hasheem Thabeet
5. Taj Gibson

Milwaukee Bucks
1. Jeff Pendergraph
2. Ty Lawson
3. Jodie Meeks
4. Lee Cummard
5. Tyler Hansbrough

Top Draft Prospects for Each Team: Atlantic Division

This is the second of a six-part series in which I will match up the best prospects for each team based on the team’s weaknesses and the players’ strengths. I use each team’s Four Factors (available here: http://www.knickerblogger.net/stats/2009/Magic.htm) and the top prospects’ Four Factors (available here: http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=rYWvxyu-k0VHkqpR1m7Oc4g). Some of the teams I will talk about don’t have high enough picks to select the best available players, but I’m going ahead with it anyways just in case they make draft day trades.

Boston Celtics
1. DeJuan Blair
2. Tyler Hansbrough
3. DeMarre Carroll
4. Marcus Thornton
5. Lee Cummard

Philadelphia 76ers
1. Jeff Pendergraph
2. Ty Lawson
3. Lee Cummard
4. Tyler Hansbrough
5. DeJuan Blair

New Jersey Nets
1. Blake Griffin
2. Hasheem Thabeet
3. Taj Gibson
4. B.J. Mullens
5. Jeff Pendergraph

Toronto Raptors
1. Blake Griffin
2. Hasheem Thabeet
3. Taj Gibson
4. B.J. Mullens
5. Jeff Pendergraph

New York Knicks
1. Jon Brockman
2. Blake Griffin
3. Hasheem Thabeet
4. Taj Gibson
5. Tyler Hansbrough

Top Draft Prospects for Each Team: Southeast Division

This is the first of a six-part series in which I will match up the best prospects for each team based on the team’s weaknesses and the players’ strengths. I use each team’s Four Factors (available here: http://www.knickerblogger.net/stats/2009/Magic.htm) and the top prospects’ Four Factors (available here: http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=rYWvxyu-k0VHkqpR1m7Oc4g). Some of the teams I will talk about don’t have high enough picks to select the best available players, but I’m going ahead with it anyways just in case they make draft day trades.

Orlando Magic
1. DeJuan Blair
2. Tyler Hansbrough
3. Jeff Pendergraph
4. Jon Brockman
5. DeMarre Carroll

Atlanta Hawks
1. Blake Griffin
2. Hasheem Thabeet
3. Taj Gibson
4. B.J. Mullens
5. Jeff Pendergraph

Miami Heat
1. Hasheem Thabeet
2. Blake Griffin
3. Taj Gibson
4. B.J. Mullens
5. Jeff Pendergraph

Charlotte Bobcats
1. Ty Lawson
2. Wayne Ellington
3. Lee Cummard
4. Tyler Hansbrough
5. Jeff Pendergraph

Washington Wizards
1. Ty Lawson
2. Blake Griffin
3. Taj Gibson
4. Jodie Meeks
5. Tyler Hansbrough