I have updated college basketball plus-minus! See below. Remember you can click the arrow in the top left to view the document full screen or download it as an Excel spreadsheet.
Very nice work. If you don’t mind me asking, what is your source for the play-by-play data? I’m mostly interested in Big East teams, as almost half either don’t post any play-by-play or a version without substitution info on their websites.
Brian, thanks for the kind words. Everything is at NCAA.com.
Doh, of course! Thanks.
If you’ve got the energy, I think it would be really useful to also track +/- stats for just conference games, since the level of competition should be a better match than with all the cupcakes or lambs-to-slaughter games during the OOC.
Brian, I think the conference-only idea is solid, but I have some concerns. Plus-minus needs a lot of data to be reliable at all, so narrowing down an already brief schedule (compared to the NBA) may not be a good idea. Blowouts over easy opponents may not be the most telling games, but they are extra data points.
Take the first player on the sheet, Demond Watt. His Net Overall Plus-Minus is +10.8, which you would define as ‘team’s production is 10.8 points better with him on the floor than off’ if I’m understanding everything correctly. But what is that 10.8 measuring? Is it 10.8 points per 100 possessions? That’s my assumption, but I don’t see that state clearly anywhere.
Great stuff Jon, and mighty kind of you to make this available in spreadsheet form.
10.8 is points per average-paced game, which is estimated at 66.5 possessions.
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