One quick note before I start: In my last article about sophomores, I somehow missed Elton Brand.  I apologize for the mistake.

This is the 5th part of my series in which I take an in-depth look at different age groups of drafted players.  In each study, only first round picks from 1995-2002 are looked at.  This study takes a look at college juniors, and the players are divided into three groups: point guards, shooting guards/small forwards, and big men (power forwards and centers).  43 players were included in this study.

The main statistic I will be using to judge these players is PER.  PER, or Player Efficiency Rating, was developed by ESPN’s John Hollinger.  According to Hollinger, “Player Efficiency Rating is a rating of a player’s per-minute productivity.”  The league average is set at 15.  More information can be found here: http://www.alleyoop.com/prates.shtm.

For each pick, I calculated an expected PER.  For a #1 pick to be a success, he had to have a career PER of at least 16.8.  For a #2 pick, 16.6.  I subtracted .2 from each subsequent required PER, all the way down to pick #30 which needed a PER of 11 to be a success. I then took a look at the difference between what a player’s PER actually was and what a player of that pick should be expected to attain. 

            Not too many terrific successes, although only six players fit in this category.  Francis is the best player of the group, but he’s never been an efficient player offensively and he’s been traded twice in the last two years.  Jason Williams (referring to the UF grad also known as White Chocolate) has been a decent player and finally won a championship last year with the Heat.  As for Jay Williams, who knows what player he could have been?  His rookie year wasn’t terrible, but he may never fully recover from his accident.

            The junior shooting guards and small forwards drafted in the lottery have been tremendous.  In just this 8-year span, the names include Jefferson, Hamilton, Marion, Jamison, Carter, Pierce, and Allen.  Included in that group are hustle guys, pure shooters, athletic slashers, and tough rebounders.  Williamson has met expectations as well.  The only lottery pick to disappoint has been Dunleavy.  Non-lottery first rounders, however, have all been failures (with Posey being the possible exception).  The results are so consistent that there may be something worth investigating further here.

            There’s no difference between lottery big men and non-lottery big men: they all disappoint.  Mohammed (Bennett only played 68 games in his career, so we’re going to ignore him in this case) is the biggest success in terms of difference between PER and Expected PER, but he’s not exactly dominant inside.  Camby has talent and puts up good numbers for stretches, but injuries have limited his success.  Gooden is solid, but not a serious difference-maker.  And then you’ve got a ton of disappointments: Olowokandi, Haislip, Fizer, Traylor, Potapenko, Foyle, etc.  One interesting thing to note is that a lot of the players listed here are considered short for their position, such as Fizer, Traylor, Fortson, and Taylor. 

That wraps up part five of the series.  The old guys, college seniors, are next.

Information from thedraftreview.com and basketball-reference.com was used in this study.

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