Which NBA Teams Have Done the Best in the Draft?

Basketball-Statistics.com | Innovative Stats and Analysis

by Jon Nichols

NBA drafts can be frustrating times for many fans. Some fans look forward every year to adding a new young talent to their roster, only to see the player fizzle out and not help the team. Even though general managers have their jobs for a reason and can do their jobs better than any of us armchair quarterbacks, sometimes it seems they’re clueless. I did this study to find out which teams have been the most successful in the draft and which haven’t been doing their homework.

The study was done based on drafts from 1990 to 2002. This time period was selected because anything pre-1990 seems outdated and because judging players who’ve been in the league for less than 3 years is unfair. The first statistic I used to measure success was average PER in the first round for each team. PER, or Player Efficiency Rating, was developed by ESPN’s John Hollinger. According to Hollinger, “Player Efficiency Rating is a rating of a player’s per-minute productivity.” The league average is set at 15. More information can be found here: http://www.alleyoop.com/prates.shtm.

The second statistic used was standard deviation of PER in the first round. This is used to determine how unpredictable each team’s picks were. Teams with higher standard deviations had more unpredictable picks and vice versa.

The third statistic used was one I developed. I determine if each player selected was a success based not only on performance but also on draft position. For a #1 pick to be a success, he has to have a career PER of at least 16.8. For a #2 pick, 16.6. I subtracted .2 from each subsequent required PER, all the way down to pick #30 which needs a PER of 11 to be a success.

As you may have noticed, up to this point I have only focused on the first round. But there are two rounds in the draft, and certainly both can produce great players. However, I felt it was unfair to use any of the first three statistics on the 2nd round. Because it is most common for a 2nd rounder to be nothing special, one great player can dramatically affect the overall rating of a team in one of the three categories. Thus, I took a look at each player drafted in the 2nd round to see if he played in at least 100 games in his career. For each team, I calculated the percentage of players that met this criterion.

Where does your team rank?

Draft Success 1990-2002
Rank	Team	Avg. PER	Std. Dev.	1st Round Success	2nd Round 100+
1	Suns	16.1	3.93	80%	38.89%
2	76ers	15.07	3.53	63.64%	35.29%
3	Pacers	13.83	1.19	63.64%	36.36%
4	Cavaliers	14.57	3.31	61.54%	40%
5	Pistons	13.48	4.08	61.54%	44.44%
6	Grizzlies	16.59	2.79	60%	30%
7	Jazz	13.03	4.13	58.33%	45.45%
8	Raptors	14.96	5.26	55.56%	0%
9	SuperSonics	14.53	2.67	54.55%	47.37%
10	Hornets	15.51	4.26	50%	71.43%
11	Timberwolves	15	4.57	50%	35.71%
12	Warriors	14.77	2.96	50%	16.67%
13	Bucks	14.29	4.2	50%	62.50%
14	Spurs	13.99	5.69	50%	41.67%
15	Wizards	13.84	2.66	44.44%	53.33%
16	Celtics	13.13	4.33	42.86%	12.50%
17	Lakers	13.03	3.17	40%	27.27%
18	Nuggets	13.63	3.09	37.50%	35.71%
19	Magic	13.41	5.05	36.84%	57.14%
20	Kings	13.55	2.5	33.33%	44.44%
21	Clippers	13.29	2.4	31.58%	25%
22	Hawks	12.23	2.35	31.25%	25%
23	Trail Blazers	13.12	3.65	30%	20%
24	Mavericks	13.53	2.65	27.27%	57.89%
25	Rockets	12.48	5.15	26.67%	35.29%
26	Nets	13.23	3.45	25%	37.50%
27	Knicks	11.88	1.95	25%	12.50%
28	Bulls	12.6	3.83	20%	36.84%
29	Heat	13.45	1.6	11.11%	35.71%

As always, your comments are welcome. I’d love to hear about anything you liked or hated about this study.

Information from espn.com and basketball-reference.com was used in this study.