Today I will be projecting the NBA statistics of Tyreke Evans of the Memphis Tigers using my Box Score Prediction System (explanation here: http://basketball-statistics.com/explanationoftheboxscorepredictionsystem.html).  After just one year in school, Evans will be entering the draft.  He’s a likely lottery pick, and could go in the top ten.

Evans was disappointing early in the year, but after he was moved to point guard he really took off.  He’s not projected as an NBA point guard, but he certainly excelled at that position at the college level.  Evans has pretty good size and strength and is an excellent finisher at the rim.  His ball-handling and quickness were evident once he was moved to the point.  However, his biggest weakness is his inconsistent outside shot.  In addition, he is prone to making poor decisions on offense. 

How will Evans do in the NBA?  Let’s take a look at his projected box score per 36 minutes:

Evans appears to be a pretty solid prospect.  His scoring rate is the highest of any prospect I’ve projected thus far (and that includes Blake Griffin and James Harden, two great scorers).  Efficiency-wise, he’ll be above average as well.  His field goal percentage (44%) won’t be astronomical, but his ability to get to the free throw line and convert at a reasonable rate will benefit him greatly.  Also, even though his three-point shooting won’t be an asset, it won’t be a significant liability either.  BSPS thinks he’ll make one three per game at 31%. 

I’m impressed with the rest of Evans’s projected stat line.  19-5.5-5 is pretty impressive for a shooting guard.  His height, strength, and wingspan will make him a good rebounder at the shooting guard position, and he’s shown the ability to create shots for others.  He’ll even get a few steals and blocks as well.  One problem could be turnovers, as he projects to give away the ball more than three times per 36 minutes.  To his defense, this comes with constantly having the ball in your hands.

Overall, I think Evans is a very impressive prospect.  Even if he were just a scorer he’d look good.  But if he can help on the boards and create shots for others, he could be a great asset.  In addition, I think his two biggest weaknesses are common problems for young players that eventually are overcome.  Depending on how hard he works at it, Evans could be a decent outside shooter.  His decision-making has been questionable, but you’d expect that to improve as he gets older and matures.

Evans looks like a very intriguing prospect.  In a draft full of questions, he may emerge as one of the better players.

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