Today I will be using my Box Score Prediction System (explanation here: http://basketball-statistics.com/explanationoftheboxscorepredictionsystem.html)  to predict the NBA stats of one of the draft’s most talked about prospects, Tyler Hansbrough. 

Hansbrough has been a great player in college.  I’m not hesitant to say that the mythology surrounding him has inflated his value a bit too high, but he’s been great nonetheless.  For four years he’s been one of the best players on a great college team in North Carolina.  He’s been a reliable scorer who puts 100% effort into every game.

His limitations have been noticed by draft experts and NBA scouts alike.  During North Carolina’s victory over Oklahoma in the Elite Eight, Blake Griffin appeared to be on a totally different level than Hansbrough.  Psycho-T is great at the college level, but next to an elite talent like Griffin he looks quite ordinary. 

How does BSPS think he’ll do in the NBA?  Let’s look at his projected box score per 36 minutes:

18.63 points per 36 minutes is quite high, and it is the most questionable part of this projection.  BSPS thinks Hansbrough will continue with his ability to get to the free throw line and convert those attempts at a high rate.  His shooting percentage will be adequate, and he may even add three-pointers to his repertoire. 

Like most people, I have my doubts about this projection.  Many of the gifts he has at the college level will be non-existent at the NBA level.  Will he really be able to score this much against great defenders when he has such limited athleticism?

Let’s take a look at some of his other projected numbers.  His relatively low rebounding rate should be a concern for NBA teams.  Just fewer than seven rebounds per 36 minutes will not cut it for an NBA big man, and that’s assuming these projections aren’t overrating Hansbrough.  Also, he will rarely block shots, something he almost never does in college.   With limited athleticism and size, he may be a liability on the defensive end. 

BSPS doesn’t think Hansbrough will be a bust in the NBA because of his crafty ability to score.  Because of the projected limitations for the rest of the game, Hansbrough better continue to find new ways to score if he wants to keep a spot on an NBA roster. If not, he may just be a career fringe "hustle player."

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