Player Projection: Gerald Henderson

by Jon Nichols

Today I’m going to project the NBA statistics of Gerald Henderson using my Box Score Prediction System (explanation here: 

Henderson has not flown under the radar thanks to being a member of the Duke Blue Devils.  He’s widely regarded as an elite athlete who can do it all.  He’s a great defender, good ball-handler, decent shooter, and excellent finisher at the rim.  Just as important, he’s been producing despite playing in one of the toughest conferences in the nation. 

Despite his similarities in some ways to someone like Shawn Marion, Henderson also has some limitations.  At 6’4, he’s going to be a guard in the NBA.  At just 215 pounds, he’ll be a slightly small shooting guard at that.  How will he fare when everyone else on the court is much bigger than they used to be?  Let’s see his projected NBA box score per 36 minutes:

As you can see, those aren’t particularly overwhelming statistics.  According to BSPS, Henderson won’t be bad at anything, but he won’t be great at anything either.  His scoring rate is decent, but he doesn’t look like a go-to guy.  He won’t be super-efficient either.  His rebounding, assists, steals, turnovers, and foul numbers are all just adequate.

However, there is one potential positive.  Box score numbers do a pretty miserable job of measuring a player’s defensive abilities, and Henderson’s got a great reputation in that regard.  Even if his offense isn’t dominant, he can certainly find a place in the league if he becomes a lockdown defender.

Can a player excel by being slightly above average in a lot of areas?  If not, Henderson’s defense still may make him a useful player.  The simple counting stats don’t project him to be a great player, so we’ll see if they’re doing him an injustice. 





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