Today I will be projecting the NBA stats of Eric Maynor of the Virginia Commonwealth Rams using my Box Score Prediction System (explanation here: http://basketball-statistics.com/explanationoftheboxscorepredictionsystem.html).  Maynor will likely be selected somewhere in the first round, although it is still up in the air whether or not he will be a lottery pick.

One of the top point guard prospects in the 2009 draft, Maynor possesses great quickness and a solid outside shot.  As a senior he starred for VCU and led them to the NCAA tournament.  In fact, the Rams were a basket away from upsetting the UCLA Bruins.  Maynor combines an ability to score with prototypical point guard skills.

Despite Maynor’s solid play at the highest level of NCAA action, there are still questions about the level of competition on VCU’s schedule.  It is true that their schedule was pretty weak (although they did have some tough games, including one against Oklahoma).  However, as I’ve stated before, this downside is often overstated.  Teams like Virginia Commonwealth are still facing Division I competition on a nightly basis.  There is also a lot more parity today at the college level.  After all, VCU’s conference featured very solid teams such as George Mason and Old Dominion. 

How does BSPS think Maynor will do in the NBA?  Let’s take a look at his projected box score per 36 minutes:

Maynor appears to be a solid step below the other top prospects in this year’s draft.  If you take a look at his college stats, you can see why.   Although he improved each year, Maynor didn’t dominate until his senior season.  Combine this with the possibility that he beat up on weaker competition, and there are reasons to be concerned.

With that being said, there are a few bright spots.  Maynor’s projected three point percentage is solid and it would serve him well to increase his long-range attempts.  His free throw percentage will also be well above average.  Still, those two assets will be useless if they aren’t high volume.

According to BSPS, Maynor is not a top prospect and shouldn’t be picked until later in the first round.  If my system was based on just a player’s last season in college, it would be a much different story.

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