Today I will be projecting the NBA stats of Earl Clark of the Louisville Cardinals using my Box Score Prediction System (explanation here: http://basketball-statistics.com/explanationoftheboxscorepredictionsystem.html).  After three years of school, Clark will be entering the draft this year and is projected to be a lottery pick.

Clark has the size, athleticism, and skills to be a great basketball player.  Despite being 6’9, he’s a good handler and adequate shooter from the perimeter.  He’s also a great rebounder who has the athleticism to block shots.  All of these abilities allow Clark to dominate games when he wants to.

Unfortunately, he does not always dominate.  One of the biggest criticisms about him is that his play can be very inconsistent.  He also has sometimes earned a very dubious reputation: being soft.  In his scouting reports at ESPN.com, Chad Ford often compares Earl Clark to Julian Wright.  Wright is a great talent, but you’d expect more from Clark if you took him in the lottery.

How does BSPS think he’ll do in the NBA?  Let’s take a look at his projected box score per 36 minutes:

Besides the rebounding, that production would certainly be underwhelming for a lottery pick.  Efficiency-wise, Clark will be average.  But overall, he just won’t produce that much.  13 points per 36 minutes is bench-worthy, and his three-point and free throw shooting will be sub-par.

NBA teams are certainly aware of Clark’s relatively weak statistics at the college level.  With players like him, you’re picking potential, not production.  The hope is that Clark will figure out how to use all those skills and also develop a tough mindset that will allow him to produce on a nightly basis.  BSPS isn’t very optimistic.

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