Today I will be projecting the career NBA stats of Brandon Jennings using my Box Score Prediction System (explanation here: http://basketball-statistics.com/explanationoftheboxscorepredictionsystem.html). 

After being one of the best high school players in the country, Jennings decided to head to Italy and get paid for one year before heading to the NBA.  If you watch tape of him, you can see why he was so great in high school.  His athleticism and quickness are off the charts.  In addition, he’s a deft passer who can shoot the ball well from the outside or finish strongly at the rim.  It really looks like he has the complete package.

All of this makes his struggles in Europe that much more puzzling.  I can’t say I’m totally surprised that an 18-year old kid (now 19) that quickly gained fame and fortune in a foreign country would struggle, but you would think his talent would trump everything else.  That has not been the case.

How does BSPS think Jennings will do in the NBA?  Let’s take a look at his projected career box score averages per 36 minutes:

That poor projection is not very surprising to me.  Jennings simply has not been that good in Europe, so there’s no reason to think BSPS will expect stardom from him.  The biggest negatives in that box score are as follows: low shooting percentages, low volume scoring, few steals, and way too many fouls.  Also, for a point guard, that assist total is quite low.

I wouldn’t read too much into that box score.  While it is true that Jennings has struggled overseas, there are certainly a few excuses you could make for him.  Scouts love him based on his skills and potential, not on his European performance.  I think our expectations should be tempered slightly, but we really don’t know what to expect from Jennings.

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