Explanation of Composite Score Wins

To make Composite Score simpler to understand, I’ve developed a statistic called Composite Score Wins.  The number reflects the amount of wins a player produces over the course of an 82-game season.

It is computed by first measuring the total Composite Score production for each team.  Basically, that’s each player’s minutes played times his Composite Score (with everything made positive), added up for the whole team.  Then, each player’s contribution to that total is calculated.  The player then gets that same percentage of the team’s 82-game win pace for the year.  To determine their pace, I use “expected winning percentage,” which is determined by a team’s points scored and points allowed thus far.

Good players on bad teams won’t accumulate that many wins, and neither will bad players on good teams.  In other words, the system rewards players that have made big contributions to successful teams (think Kevin Garnett, LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard, etc.).

There is one caveat: players that have been hurt for large chunks of the season won’t look good according to Composite Score Wins.  Because they haven’t played that many minutes, they haven’t “produced” that many wins yet.  The system assumes they’ll play the same amount of minutes during the rest of the season, which isn’t necessarily true.