Today I will be projecting the NBA statistics of Ricky Rubio using my Box Score Prediction System (explanation here: http://basketball-statistics.com/explanationoftheboxscorepredictionsystem.html).  This is my second player projection using Euroleague statistics, and it is undoubtedly one of the most anticipated ones.

The buzz about Rubio has been circulating for a few years now.  Still just 18 years old, Rubio possesses gifts normally claimed by players well beyond him in years.  Rubio is an excellent passer, a creative playmaker, a floor general, and a leader with a knack for the ball.  He’s been compared to players like Steve Nash and Pete Maravich. 

As good as this sounds, Rubio is not a player without weaknesses.  He doesn’t look like a three-point shooter in the NBA.  Athletically, he may not compare to some of the other top prospects in this year’s draft.  Also, as you would expect from such a young kid, it would serve him well to put on a few pounds of muscle.  I wouldn’t be too concerned about that last point, though. 

How does BSPS think Rubio will do in the NBA?  Let’s take a look at his projected box score per 36 minutes:

The first reaction from 99.9% of the people that see this box score will most likely be one of doubt and disappointment.  For a player of Rubio’s potential, those numbers would make him a huge bust.  However, there are a couple of things I must discuss, and a couple of things we can learn.

First, my projections for international players are based on Euroleague numbers.  If you take a look at Rubio’s stats in that league compared to other leagues (such as the Spanish one he currently is in), they are inferior.  I wouldn’t blame this on the increased level of competition because Rubio played well enough in the Olympics.  The truth is that it is probably the result of a small sample size. Rubio has competed in just 21 Euroleague games.  It is not out of the question for a player to have an uncharacteristic performance over a 21 game span.

With all that being said, we can still glean a few things from these numbers.  While 10.27 points per 36 minutes is perhaps too low, I think it is true that Rubio won’t be much of a scorer in the NBA.  Besides the Under-16 competitions he’s been in, he’s never been a high volume or highly efficient scorer.  In the NBA, where the players are bigger and more athletic, I would expect that trend to continue. 

We can see a couple of positive things in the box score.  BSPS thinks Rubio will average nearly seven assists per 36 minutes over his career, and I’d bet that’s an underestimate.  Also, look at the steals.  Rubio has shown a great nose for the ball on the defensive end and can really disrupt another team’s offensive sets. 

So what will we get from Rubio?  Compared to the box score above, I think he’ll end up with more assists and slightly more points, but the same shooting percentages and less steals.  Add it all up and you’ve got a pretty good but not superstar point guard.

Keep in mind though that Rubio is just 18.  He’s got a lot more development in him.  He could turn out to be one of the NBA’s elite at his position, but that all depends on how he progresses in the U.S.    

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