Player Projection: Jonny Flynn

by Jon Nichols

Today I will be projecting the NBA stats of Jonny Flynn of the Syracuse Orange using my Box Score Prediction System (explanation here:  Flynn has decided to enter the draft after two seasons at school and is a potential lottery pick.

Even for a point guard, Flynn is a bit small at 6’0.  He makes up for this with decent strength (although it could be improved).  As you would expect, Flynn boasts exceptional quickness and is very difficult to stop from penetrating to the rim.  He’s also quite athletic and can finish reasonably well.  Scouts love his toughness, and from what I’ve seen of him he certainly isn’t lacking in confidence.  However, his long-range shot can be inconsistent and he has a propensity to turn the ball over.  In addition, his decision-making isn’t always perfect.

How does BSPS think Flynn will do in the NBA?  Let’s take a look at his projected box score per 36 minutes:

Jonny Flynn Box Score

According to my numbers, Flynn will not be a dominant point guard in the NBA.  He looks like he can be a rotation player and potentially a fringe starter, but that would still be a bit of a disappointment for a lottery pick (although in this draft, maybe that’s as good as it gets).

Let’s break it down.  Scoring wise, Flynn will be decent, but no Gilbert Arenas.  At nearly fifteen points a game, he’ll contribute to the offense.  Will he be efficient?  His field goal percentage and three-point percentage will be low.  He gets to the line and converts free throws at a high rate, but this won’t help enough to prevent him from being below average efficiency-wise.  Despite his penetrating ability, Flynn probably will not be among the league leaders in assists.  The rest of his stat line contains nothing noteworthy.

Flynn may still end up being a solid middle first round pick.  This has more to do with the weakness of this year’s class more than anything.  If Flynn wants to be a star, he’ll have to work on his outside shooting, playmaking, and decision-making skills.  Otherwise, he’ll have to settle for less than 20 minutes a night off the bench.






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