Player Projection: DeMar DeRozan

 
by Jon Nichols

IToday I will be projecting the NBA stats of DeMar DeRozan of the USC Trojans using my Box Score Prediction System (explanation here: http://basketball-statistics.com/explanationoftheboxscorepredictionsystem.html).   DeRozan has not declared for the draft yet, but assuming he does, he should go somewhere in the lottery.

After being very highly recruited out of high school, DeRozan had a so-so year at USC.  However, he picked it up late as the games got more important, a good sign.  This late surge will probably be what convinces him to enter the draft this year (that and the fact that the class is so weak – players in this year’s draft are going to get paid much more than they would in most other years). 

DeRozan’s got a few things that scouts love.  For a shooting guard, he’s tall with a large wingspan.  His athleticism rivals that of any other prospect.  In addition, his game is quite fluid and he can look very good on tape.  However, there are some negatives to his game.  Like with many young athletic players, his outside shot needs a lot of work.  He simply wasn’t a threat from long distance this year.  In addition, there are some concerns that he was too passive on offense, especially considering all the talent he possesses.

How does BSPS think he’ll do in the NBA?  Let’s take a look at his projected box score per 36 minutes:

DeMar DeRozan Box Score

DeRozan’s hesitance to take over a game is shown in the box score above.  For someone with his scoring gifts, he should be able to score more than 15 points per 36 minutes.  His other weakness is evident as well: he’s only projected to shoot one three-pointer per game, and it’s likely he’ll miss it.  Thankfully, his free throw percentage should be considerably higher once he develops in the NBA.  One other negative is his lack of assists.  DeRozan hasn’t yet shown the ability to create easy buckets for others, although a lot of factors can come into play when you’re talking about assists.

With all that being said, I don’t necessarily have a negative outlook on DeRozan’s future.  First of all, it’s not outside the realm of possibility for him to develop the aggression that he needs to put up serious points.  He just may have difficulty if he doesn’t make three-pointers and get to the line a lot.  If he doesn’t score much, he can still contribute on the boards.  Thanks to his size, athleticism, and wingspan, BSPS thinks he’ll grab nearly six boards per 36 minutes, an impressive number for a shooting guard.  He’ll also do a reasonable job of not turning the ball over.

DeRozan doesn’t project to be a star unless he can increase his workload and become a more complete offensive player.  Right now, he projects to be an athletic wing who can score inside at a moderate rate.  If that ends up being the case, he’ll have a place in the league – just not a prominent one. 

 

 

 

 

 

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